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Shanghai top for house price rises
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THE average price of a new home in Shanghai rose 15.5 percent last month, faster than in any other Chinese city, the National Bureau of Statistics said yesterday.
Shanghai has topped the year-on-year property price rise charts every month since November, though the March increase was slower than the 18.9 percent recorded in February.
Other significant climbers in March included Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, each of which saw increases of more than 13 percent.
While property price growth is expected to be moderate on a national level this year, upward pressures will remain in first-tier cities, said Zhu Haibin, chief China economist for JP Morgan.
“Regional differentiation will be the theme once again this year,” Zhu said in a note.
“While demand is outstripping supply in first-tier cities, in smaller cities there has been an increase in supply,” he said. “This could over time lead to downward pressure on prices, but it will take the market a while to digest the increased supply.”
The statistics bureau monitors home price rises — excluding government-subsidized affordable housing — in 70 cities on China’s mainland every month. In March, 69 cities reported a year-on-year increase — unchanged for the fourth month in a row, with Wenzhou in east China’s Zhejiang Province the only exception.
On a month-on-month basis, however, 56 cities saw an increase last month, the lowest since January 2013, and continuing the downward trend after 57 in February, 62 in January and 65 in December.
“After faster-than-expected increases in 2013, house price inflation appeared to slow in early 2014,” JP Morgan’s Zhu said. “This is consistent with our forecast that prices will moderate this year due to continued credit tapering and supply adjustments.”
In the existing home market, 42 cities saw month-on-month price increases in March, down from 46 in February, the bureau said.
In year-on-year terms, Shenzhen led the way in the existing home market with a 13.2 percent increase, replacing Beijing at the top of the charts, which reported a 15.9 percent rise in February.
According to figures from JP Morgan, the average price of all homes rose 0.2 percent month on month in March, slowing from 0.3 percent in February. The dip was in line with earlier reports of weaker home sales in the first quarter.
In value terms, home sales in the first three months fell 7.7 percent year on year to 1.1 trillion yuan (US$177 billion), the statistics bureau said last week.
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