IMF downgrades outlook for US economy
Print Edition
THE International Monetary Fund downgraded its forecast for the US economy this year and said America should raise the minimum wage to help the poor, offer paid maternity leave to encourage more women to work and overhaul the corporate tax system to boost productivity.
In its annual checkup of the US economy, the IMF yesterday predicted 2.2 percent US growth this year, down from 2.4 percent in 2015. In April, the international lending agency had forecast 2.4 percent growth for 2016.
Still, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, citing a healthy job market, says “the US economy is in good shape.” US unemployment fell last month to an eight-year low 4.7 percent. Employers have added a solid 200,000 jobs a month over the past year.
The US is growing faster than most other advanced economies. The IMF foresees 1.5 percent growth this year for the 19 countries that use the euro currency, and 0.5 percent growth for Japan.
The US economy got off to a slow start this year, expanding at a lackluster 0.8 percent annual pace from January through March. A strong dollar hurt exporters by making their goods costlier in foreign markets. Energy companies have slashed investment in the face of low oil prices.
Lagarde also said the US faces longer term economic problems, including an aging labor force, weak productivity growth and growing income inequality.
She noted that the US is the only rich country in the world that does not offer paid maternity leave and that American women are far less likely to work than men. Offering paid family leave and help with childcare costs could encourage more women to seek jobs, she said.
The US could improve productivity by overhauling the corporate tax system — reducing tax rates and eliminating loopholes that encourage inefficiency, the IMF said.
To combat widening income inequality and help the poor, it recommended a higher minimum wage and expanded tax breaks for low-income Americans.
The IMF also believes the Federal Reserve should move slowly to raise US interest rates and to allow US inflation to temporarily overshoot its annual target of 2 percent.
Low inflation rates can discourage consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of US economic activity. When prices remain flat, shoppers don't have to worry about paying higher prices and may even delay purchases, thinking they will save money if they wait.
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