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January 21, 2016

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Home » Business » Biz Special

Prototypes are precursors of evolving lifestyle

By Zhu Shenshen | January 21, 2016, Thursday | Print Edition

A deluge of trends and predictions dominated headlines in the information technology industry as Las Vegas hosted the world’s biggest consumer electronics show earlier this month.

We were inundated with stories claiming that new technologies like self-driving cars, virtual reality, wearable digital devices, robots and drones would change the way we live beginning as early as this year.

As an IT journalist, I remain somewhat skeptical.

Yes, all the new gadgets and technologies are promising and even sexy, but I doubt that they will revolutionize our lives anytime soon. It usually takes several years, even decades, to turn prototypes into products for the mass market.

The gap between bright stellars in tech shows and best sellers in the market is often wide. Google Glass proved that.

The annual Las Vegas CES show came at a difficult time for the market. Sales of consumer electronics are expected to decline this year amid an economic slowdown in China and sluggish growth in major developed countries.

Of 13 major consumer electronics sectors surveyed by Accenture, consumers balked at the idea of new purchases in nine of them, including smartphones, tablet computers and high-definition TVs.

And security remains a top consumer concern in new Internet of Things products, such as self-driving cars, drones, smartwatches and home appliance control centers.

The lack of applications or related content has become a bottleneck in the development of new technologies like virtual reality — the same dilemma that has hindered progress in 3D printing in recent years.

All concerns aside, what did CES have to offer this year? Here’s a quick look at some of the hottest trends.

Virtual reality

Top IT giants, like Facebook’s Oculus, HTC and Sony, released new virtual reality gadgets, some of them targeting consumers directly for the first time. The companies are aiming for star products to play a bigger role of our lives, especially in games and social media applications.

In 2016, sales of virtual reality gadgets, such as headsets allowing users to play games without using their hands, will hit 140 million units, compared with “very limited sales” thus far, according to researcher TrendForce.

But the majority of virtual reality products released in 2016 will be focused on entertainment such as games and films, which have limited audiences, suffer a lack of content and still carry high price tags.

Virtual reality products offered by firms such as HTC and Sony have their own problems of relatively small market positions and financial pressures. Both have lost market shares in core smartphone businesses.

The exception is Oculus, which was bought by Facebook in a US$2 billion deal in 2014. It has both enough incentives and the financial gravitas to develop products, boost market share and educate consumers about virtual reality. But Facebook itself is not available in China.

To hit the mass market, virtual reality needs to move into areas such as education and driving. That takes time. At its current stage, it needs to “cool down” while it plots a way forward, according to tech blog iFanr.

Smart and automated cars

Cars were the headline stars at the CES show, with automated technologies and a vision of cars that drive themselves. Carmakers like BMW and Ford and Internet firms like China’s Letv displayed their latest innovations in automation, including equipping existing cars with more sensors and self-control features, and concept cars that are fully self-driving.

Shanghai Daily auto journalist Anna Lu recently lamented about the current state of convergence of IT and car industries.

“It may be useful on open roads free of traffic,” she said of a test ride in a hands-free Tesla, “but I can’t see it working in Shanghai’s urban jungle.”

We both agree that Tesla models are the most “clever” of cars, representing the infancy of future smart “self-driving,” but that’s isn’t likely to affect average motorists for five to 10 years.

Cars utilizing sensors and other “human-like” systems will be very expensive for a long time to come.

Connected devices

CES exhibitors ranging from startups to consumer electronics giants vied to provide the control centers for the vast array of Internet of Things in your home, car and elsewhere, connecting every device through Wi-Fi or radio technologies.

The media called the scrum “a battle to be at the center of your digital life.”

Firms have reason enough to be involved because the market potential is huge. It is estimated to have been 500 billion yuan (US$78 billion) in China last year, according to Xinhua news agency. The industry is expected to contribute US$1.8 trillion to gross domestic product in the years through 2030, according to Accenture.

The winners in the battle to be the “hub” may be smartphones, smart watches, home appliance centers or even lightbulbs and washing machines. It’s hard to overlook the fact that there is still no unified industry standard for the Internet of Things sector.

At this stage of the race, the profit frontrunners include Qualcomm Inc and Intel Corp, which dominate in mobiles and computer chips, respectively. They have developed chips for wearable devices, drones and even robots, which were displayed during CES.

But it’s still too early to say who will ultimately be strongest at the finish line. Giants like Google, Apple and China’s Huawei and Xiaomi all have their own strategies for connecting the information society.

As for us consumers, well, we can but look at what CES had to offer, dream about the future and not get carried away by expectations.

Biz Special


 

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