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May 12, 2010

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Shoes aimed at developer show growing discontent

IN his own words, celebrity property developer Ren Zhiqiang has been "accorded a courteous reception proper to a president."

Two dirty shoes were hurled at him minutes after he began to address a big-time property summit in Dalian, Liaoning Province, on May 7.

At the time of the assault Ren had just made sarcastic remarks about a hero in a popular TV series dramatizing the plight of Chinese people who find housing increasingly unaffordable in a big city.

Like that other president who dodged a shoe, Ren made a clever dodge, and there were shouts of "Bravo!" - clearly not for avoiding the shoes. A subsequent online survey showed a stunning 80 percent of respondents in support of the assault.

But from the outset the young assailant had missed his real target by aiming the footware at Ren. More deserving are some officials who stand firmly behind property developers who, after sharing the spoils with real estate developers, begin to condemn the real estate developers for their greediness.

Not all property developers feel it necessary to conceal their contempt for previous government determinations to rein in the red-hot property market.

Ren has previously uttered many outrageous remarks about unaffordable homes, for instance, "I only build homes for the rich." Depending on interpretations, he may be just pointing to a simple truth that the government is obliged to supply housing to the majority outside the market.

Who is building for the poor anyway? In theory, local governments aspire to that ideal, but affordable housing has never been a real priority, and becomes increasingly the preserve of our pampered civil servants. In that light, Ren might be stating a simple truth many prefer to keep to themselves.

Another celebrity real estate developer, SOHO China Chairman Pan Shiyi, blogged recently that while flying from Beijing to Boao, Hainan Province, for a forum last month, a flight attendant asked him: "Chairman Pan, I am asking on behalf of our whole crew. Do you think housing prices will continue to soar? I am going to get married soon. Do you think I should rent or buy a flat now?"

Pan may have felt flattered in being consulted on sky-high housing prices at so befitting an altitude. As with Ren's words, Pan's prediction of soaring home prices over the past few years seemed to have been providentially inspired.

Their detractors - disappointed and financially ruined (by missing the chance to buy) - should be directing their ire at those whose duty is to regulate the market, rather than the likes of Ren and Pan.

Pan remarked at the forum that China's property market has become "cancerous", in that it is sucking money from virtually all sectors - those that should be focused on agriculture, petrochemicals, railway construction and other areas.

Gaping gap

The central government has recently decided to banish 78 of 94 centrally administered businesses from the property market, but according to Pan, that's more like administering chemotherapy when radical surgery is required.

Pan said it is like destroying 78 "cancerous" cells, but according medical experts, the remaining 16 cells (enterprises allowed to remain) would become more vigorous, and malignant.

Wang Yongping, secretary general of the China Commercial Property Association, provided another perspective during the forum addressed by developer Pan. Wang said that after consulting SOHO China's annual report last year, he found its gross profit stood at 52 percent.

By comparison, the chief of diary products maker Mengniu revealed that its gross profit is 5 percent, and that's deemed an unusually high figure for those engaged in real business.

At that very same forum, a celebrity official observed that the Chinese economy is on the whole bubble-free, and there is no need to dampen the property market. But that pair of dirty shoes do suggest the situation is getting a bit explosive.

On Monday Xinhua published an investigative report titled "The wealth gap in China is testing the limits of social tolerance." The report ranks property development, mining and securities as among those sectors reaping "exorbitant profits" in China.

According to last year' Forbes' annual Chinese Billionaire List, property developers account for five of the top 10, 19 of the top 40, and 154 of the top 400. The rich list is sending a strong message: those who are engaged in honest work are being steadily sidelined.

According to Tang Jun, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, statistically, both the poor and the richer have seen increases in their income in recent years. But when that is adjusted for inflation, the real picture is that the poor are getting poorer and the rich, richer.

According to an extensive income survey conducted by Beijing Normal University since the 1980s, the top 10 percent bracket earned 7.3 times more than the lowest 10 percent in 1988; in 2007 that ratio rose to 23.

Even for wage earners, the key word is not hard work, or intelligence, but the kind of professions you enter. If you happen to be in power supply, electronics, telecommunications, petroleum, tobacco, or other sectors that monopolize state resources, you would be automatically considered prosperous.

For years there have been repeated attempts at correcting the imbalances, to little avail.

One simple truth is that when money can be so concentrated in a few sectors, there is enormous scope for corruption, and money easily translates into enormous bargaining power, and political clout. As the property sector is now openly recognized as "a pillar industry," official boosterism has become part of stated government strategy to leverage high growth.

Land transfer

Tang explains that housing development is essentially about. In actual practice, the land is "taken over" from peasants at a low price and given to the highest bidder for development - with future home buyers paying for all this.

A portion of the home value flows back to the government in terms of land use fees, fueling a huge amount of urban prettification projects, which then translate into staggering GDP growth. The island Hainan Province has just achieved a staggering first quarter GDP growth of 25.1 percent. If officials still feel compelled to justify the island's soaring home prices during that quarter, that dazzling figure can be all-redeeming.

To tackle the issues, China must first of all slow down, said economist Zhou Shulian in his article published in Study Times, a journal of the CPC Party School.

Only by slowing down can China avoid further exacerbating its already dangerous wealth disparity, allowing officials time for introspection, and understanding the plight of the disgruntled.




 

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