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August 31, 2010

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Home » Opinion » Foreign Views

Searching China for a young Warren Buffet

IT'S another steamy summer morning in Shanghai and as I travel to my office watching China's prosperity being built before my eyes, I cannot but question where China will stand in the not-so-distant future.

If I base my judgment solely on the infrastructure being built and the dedication of those workers, how can anyone form a negative view of China's future?

As I enter my office complex, destined to be a massive corporate park that is still being constructed, I gear myself up to enter my Wall Street microcosm.

It is here where I learn about China's real future - the fresh university graduates full of dreams and ambitions.

As I near the end of my third year managing a team of the best and brightest China has to offer, I often wonder if the person across the table from me will become the next Warren Buffett of China.

In my time here, I've hired over 100 Chinese investment professionals, all aspiring to be world-class investors. The majority I've interviewed and hired are not your typical Chinese worker - they are highly intelligent and hard working finance and accounting graduates with master degrees from top universities and they are fluent in English.

The bulk of these graduates have spent multiples of an average Chinese household's income for their overseas education. Interestingly, the cost of an overseas degree in most cases does not translate into a higher income, assuming that both candidates' English language skills are on par. This significant investment seems like a risky bet, given the limited potential return.

I've always been a believer of looking at an individual in an analogous way to a company as one generates revenues, has expenses, makes investments, creates value and takes on debt.

Using this approach, one can question the decisions made by China's new generation and certainly question how they can be the next Warren Buffett if they cannot apply certain key principles to themselves. To cash in, graduates are breaking the golden rules set out by Mr Buffett.

Nothing seems to be long-term oriented. Time and time again, you see the focus on taking short-term gains trumping the concept of long-term sustainable growth. This cannot be considered an encouraging factor when thinking about the future of China.

Fortunately, China's government understands the importance and value of long-term thinking, but how can this be adopted by the next generation of leaders who've grown up in a society so dominated by making a quick buck? A new generation that wants to spend money faster than they can earn, and earn money faster than they can learn.

Adding to this, the lack of independent thinking propelled by a herd-mentality that would make any short-seller salivate, spells a recipe for disaster. I recently asked a bright young researcher why he was leaving our firm. He seemed perplexed by my question and said that one of his peers recently left as well and thought it would be good for him to go too. With both of us knowing that he was making a speculative career move, he added, "What's the risk?"

The risk tolerance is quite apparent in many facets of life in China. To most, the term risk implies an upside and downside - the unfortunate part is that many new graduates in China have not experienced or don't consider the downside as much as one should. With a strong family support system, for better or worse, you see a generation of future financiers that view the world with a layer of protection.

What makes Mr Buffet the best is his disciplined, independent and long-term approach to investing. These are characteristic traits that no university can teach, but will need to be instilled in the new generation of professionals in China to ensure sustained and meaningful growth.

(The author is the head of investment research for Evalueserve China.)




 

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