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November 16, 2015

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Setting steady, surefooted reform pace

CHINA’S policies will remain consistent under the proposed 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), with government leaders aiming to double the size of the economy in the 10 years ending in 2020. One minor change is a greater accent on sustainability in pursuing growth.

“The proposed plan marks a continuation rather than a break with existing policies of the last few years,” said Zhu Haibin, chief economist at JP Morgan. “The more meaningful part is to read between the lines and analyze how the leaders assess the current economic situation and how they will prioritize various policy objectives in the coming years.”

Chinese leaders seem to be fairly confident.

President Xi Jinping, in a statement released earlier this month after the Fifth Plenum of the 18th Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, said China will be able to achieve growth of at least 6.5 percent in coming years and the targets in the proposed plan are attainable.

“Maintaining a medium-high level of growth is conducive to improving people’s lives so they can benefit from living in a moderately prosperous society,” Xi said. “In the next five years, China’s development should not just focus on the pace of growth but, more importantly, on the quality of growth.”

Premier Li Keqiang earlier gave assurances that growth of 6.9 percent in the third quarter, which was the slowest pace in six years, was within a “reasonable” range.

“China’s economic growth has not been bad over the past year, considering the slow recoveries elsewhere,” Li said. “The hard work of people up and down the country and the enormous potential of China’s economy give us more confidence that we can overcome any difficulties.”

Li cited as reasons for optimism a rising employment rate and fast growth in the services sector.

The proposals in the next Five-Year Plan put prosperity and sustainability at the core of government policies.

“The growth target is set at 6.5 percent, which implies that the government will tolerate slower growth to leave more room for structural rebalancing,” said JP Morgan’s Zhu.

Wang Tao, an economist at UBS, said China has clearly defined “moderately prosperous” this time. It refers, she said, not only to doubling 2010’s GDP and per-capita income, but also enhancing social welfare, improving the environment, opening up markets further and establishing more mature government systems.

“Growth is still a top priority in the next five years,” Wang said, “but it will be more balanced growth.”

A shift in China’s growth model is set to take place from multiple angles, according to the official statement.

First, the country wants to boost consumption relative to investment and promote services relative to industry and construction.

Second, the country may encourage the entry of the private sector into various industries while at the same time deepening restructuring of state-owned enterprises.

Third, the country aims to upgrade manufacturing and emerging sectors, and reduce obsolete capacity.

And lastly, the country will seek to redistribute the benefits of economic growth so that the poor are pulled out of poverty. Pension and social welfare insurance coverage is to be extended nationwide.

“Such moves are clearly aimed at sustainable growth,” Wang said. “Furthermore, the proposals entail not only economic sustainability, but environmental, social and cultural sustainability as well.”

In the proposed plan, “going green” is a key target. It says there needs to be greater investment in non-fossil fuel energy, tougher rules and stricter enforcement of environmental laws, limitations on the right to use energy and resources, and incentives for environmentally friendly technologies and products.

“Going global” is another key target. The plan calls for greater use of the so-called “negative list approach” to granting foreign companies more leeway in accessing Chinese markets. It is promoting less red tape, the acceleration of foreign involvement in the economy through the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, an increase in overseas direct investment, wider opening of China’s financial markets and capital account, and the operation of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank.

The language of the proposed plan may have a familiar ring to it. “New normal,” structural rebalancing, industrial upgrading, reform, openness, equality and environment protection are all commonly voiced themes. But that’s the whole point — steady as she goes.

“It is not surprising that the lists look similar when compared to the 3rd Plenum report two years ago,” said Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications. “The 3rd Plenum report was the economic blueprint laid out by the current leadership, and thus the focus of the 13th Five-Year Plan is to implement it.”

One somewhat unexpected aspect of the plan was the elimination of China’s decades-long “one-child” policy.

Under the new policy, all couples will be allowed to have two children. About 90 million families would qualify. The new policy is likely to raise China’s population to 1.45 billion by 2030, according to the estimate from the National Health and Family Planning Commission.

“It is also a move for sustainability,” said Peng Wensheng, chief economist of CITIC Securities Co. “The policy aims to rebalance an aging population in the long term. It is also economically positive for the near term, with the immediate effect of ushering in a new wave of children-related consumption.”

In the longer run, the relaxation in family-planning policy is aimed at restructuring the nation’s demographics, providing more working-age people to help finance care of the elderly. Without the new policy, China’s labor force was forecast to decrease by 29 million in five years’ time, from 930 million in 2014.

The Five-Year Plan proposals unveiled by the leadership will be submitted to the National People’s Congress for approval in March. Approval is a foregone conclusion. What is harder to predict is how successful the leadership will be in managing all the economic levers as once explosive growth is tamped down to a more sustainable pace.

 

The 13th Five-Year Plan envisions significant achievements in the following areas:

Maintaining economic growth

Transforming growth models

Improving the structure of industry

Promoting innovation-driven growth

Accelerating the pace of agricultural modernization

Institutional reform

Coordinating development

Encouraging an ecological lifestyle and environment protection

Improving social welfare

Alleviating poverty




 

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