Dead cattle in Kenya are our problem too

2009-11-12 | NEWSPAPER EDITION

Reading Tools

Email Story

Illustration by Zhou Tao

More in photo gallery

UP on the Laikipia Plateau in Kenya, a Masai tribesman must have nine cattle before he can get married.

Sam Stanyaki, a young man from Waso village, has worked hard to acquire these nine animals. But will he be able to marry in February next year with a big celebration, as he plans?

"This year, the rains have come so late that there is no grass left, and we are trucking our cattle out to places where we think the grass is better," said Stanyaki. "There won't be enough grass for everyone, and I am afraid that I'll have to sell some of my cattle at a very low price, or that some will die. If that happens, I don't know what I will do about my wedding."

For people like Sam Stanyaki across the developing world, climate change is not an abstract notion, but a very immediate reality. It is about their cattle, their crops, their access to food and fuel, their families' health and future prospects and, for many, it is simply a matter of survival.

In fact, climate change is inextricably linked with development and human progress, says the latest of the World Bank's long-running series, World Development Report (WDR) 2010, which highlights the enormous risks and opportunities presented by a rapidly warming planet.

"Developing countries, which have historically contributed little to global warming, are now, ironically, faced with 75 to 80 percent of the potential damage from it," said Justin Lin, the World Bank's chief economist.

"The latest and best scientific evidence suggests that at global warming of more than two degrees above pre-industrial temperatures, more than a billion people could face water scarcity, 15 to 30 percent of species worldwide could be doomed to extinction, and hunger will rise, particularly in tropical countries," said Rosina Bierbaum, co-director of the report, and dean of the School of Natural Resources and Environment at the University of Michigan.

As the planet rapidly warms towards this grim scenario, the poorest countries are already facing the largest damages from extreme weather events, the report notes. Hurricane Ivan, for instance, caused damage equivalent to 200 percent of Grenada's GDP.

The good news, according to the report, is that a "climate-smart" world is possible, but only if countries and individuals act now, act together, and act differently than in the past.

These messages take on added importance ahead of Copenhagen, where negotiators will meet in December this year to shape an international response to climate change.

Urgent action

The WDR makes a case for urgent action because of increasingly severe warnings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and evidence of damage already caused, and because mitigation must begin now in order to try to keep temperatures from soaring to as much as five degrees above pre-industrial temperatures.

"What happens in the next 10 years will deeply influence the choices available to future generations," said Marianne Fay, chief economist for sustainable development at the World Bank, and co-director of the WDR. The report acknowledges that immediate action is neither easy nor cheap, but stresses that it is the best option for two reasons: first, emissions of today trap heat in the atmosphere for decades, and second, costs go up as more and more investments are made in the wrong kinds of infrastructure and energy.

While calling for countries to act together, the report stresses that high-income countries have a historical responsibility to take strong action at home to reduce their heavy carbon footprints and to help developing countries with the funds and the technology needed for low-carbon progress.