Engineer says quake lake will likely burst

By Yang Jian  |   2008-6-4  |     ONLINE EDITION

A LAKE that formed after the Sichuan earthquake was almost certain to burst its banks in Beichuan County and threaten tens of thousands of people, chief engineer of the Ministry of Water Resources said last night.

Liu Ning, the ministry's chief of quake relief, said there was a "93 percent probability" that the Tangjiashan quake lake will burst because of heavy rainfall or aftershocks.

The May 12 earthquake caused a landslide that formed a 124-meter-high dam at the barrier lake. If the water level rises to 40 meters of the top of the dam, it could burst at any time, Liu said.

The water level has increased an average of 1 meter per day. Water levels increase 1 meter for every 2 millimeters of rain that falls in upper river areas, Liu added.

The area's average rainfall is 140 millimeters in June, 360 millimeters in July and 330 millimeters in August, Liu said.

Frequent aftershocks are also a threat to the barrier lake, Liu added.

The engineer said that because the lake was formed by a landslide that cut off a river, its structure was unclear.

Up to 1.3 million people in the province have been told to be prepared for evacuation orders. More than 200,000 have already been relocated to safer areas, previous reports said.

A drainage channel at the lake was completed on May 31. Water drainage was expected to begin today.