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US professor lays out top policy priorities, possibilities as Trump enters White House
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JAMES G. McGann, a senior lecturer in International Studies and Director of the Think Tank and Civil Societies Program at the University of Pennsylvania, talked to Shanghai Daily reporter Chen Huizhi on November 11 about the results of the recent presidential election in the United States and Donald Trump’s stated priorities for his administration. McGann was in Shanghai attending a symposium held at the East China University of Political Science and Law.
Q: Pennsylvania, traditionally considered a “blue state” (ie a stronghold of the Democratic party), also favored Trump in the presidential election. What happened in Pennsylvania?
A: J. D. Vance’s book “Hillbilly Elegy” well characterized the people who voted for Donald Trump. It captures the frustration and dislocation largely caused by globalization, which manifests itself on the surface in terms of nationalism, nativism and protectionism. But it’s the underlying forces that drive those issues.
Those are major forces, such as the economic insecurity that people feel and the physical insecurity brought on by terrorism and global warming, and the loss of national and personal identity because of the forces of globalization.
I think it is those factors that led and contributed directly to Donald Trump’s victory. But I believe that most people who voted for Donald Trump voted out of an emotional response charged with anger and anxiety, not positive and affirmative factors.
Many analysts, pundits, think tanks and others didn’t want to see those realities and the implications they would have for the election because they hoped that Hillary Clinton would win. That blinded their understanding of the phenomenon that was taking place.
Q: Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote with a margin of over 200,000. Do you think that the presidential election resulted in a split society in the US? And how will Donald Trump address this?
A: In two of the last five presidential elections, there were controversies about the electoral college and popular vote.
Many believe that the electoral college is antiquated and needs to be done away with, and that the popular vote should prevail. But getting agreement on that in the next two years certainly will be impossible.
On the other hand, there’s a consensus on the importance of an effective and orderly transfer of power that is already achieved. Donald Trump has already been addressing the displeasure about the result of his being elected by being conciliatory — so long as the demonstrations are peaceful.
Q: Donald Trump has announced that his top priorities will be immigration, healthcare and jobs. Concretely what measures do you think will be taken in those areas?
A: Immigration and jobs are the areas that he can directly affect and has the support of the Congress to essentially realize. In terms of jobs, there will be in principle two foci: tax cuts that are intended to spur growth of business and major infrastructure projects.
Infrastructure was meant to be a part of the stimulus package in the economic crisis in 2008, but was never enacted. Having the support of both the Senate and the House of Representatives makes it possible for him to launch major infrastructure initiatives which will put precisely the group of people that were targeted in his campaign — middle class, laborers, unskilled and semi-skilled workers — back to work.
The more complicated thing to undo for him would be “Obamacare.” Even though he wants to abolish “Obamacare,” the reason why he’s deferred is that he would have to replace it with something. He can’t just do away with it, so he has to solve some of the fundamental problems that have been identified with “Obamacare” and keep some of the key elements which are attractive and not costly.
The big problem under “Obamacare” is the surge of healthcare premiums, which, for example, didn’t help Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. The first 100 days for him will be the easiest, and the rest of the term may be more difficult.
Q: During Donald Trump’s campaign, he made some statements against current trade arrangements with major economies in the world. What is to be expected in terms of trade policies from the US in the next period?
A: Both TPP and TTIP are dead.
Trade is the hot-button issue with the constituency that elected Donald Trump, and I believe that trade and immigration are the two areas where he needs to deliver major carefully crafted responses.
The delicate thing is that some things he does in trade might not be accepted by other countries, which could result in a backlash... Sanctions and tariffs would result in a retaliatory trade war, and he will also have to take into account Americans who operate businesses abroad.
So trade is not his immediate priority. When he talks about jobs, he’s going to create them through infrastructure.
What he can do at this stage is to oppose TPP and TTIP and achieve his objectives without renegotiating already signed agreements such as NAFTA.
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