The story appears on

Page A7

February 4, 2016

GET this page in PDF

Free for subscribers

View shopping cart

Related News

Home » Opinion » Foreign Views

To gauge overall health of China’s economy, we must look beyond its financial markets

China’s economic situation is one that is evolving more than it is declining.

Recent reports revealed that the manufacturing sector is down. Of course it is. That’s a major part of the country’s evolution. And although the numbers aren’t flattering, they don’t call for dire predictions that China’s economy might be facing a potentially catastrophic decline.

Far from experiencing a decline, China’s economy is trying to adjust to what amounts to “a new normal” with varying degrees of pain. From 2002 through 2008, annual growth averaged 12 percent.

That overheated growth rate slowed to between 8 percent and 9 percent a year from 2008 through 2014, and it is currently averaging between 6 percent and 7 percent. The slower growth rate, along with the manufacturing reports are signs that China’s enormous economy has passed the startup stage and is beginning to mature.

As economies develop and become more massive in size, annual growth inevitably slows — but it still grows. The annual growth in GDP in the US is around 2.2 percent and in the UK, it is 1.7 percent.

Although the inevitability of China adjusting to a sustainable normalcy like in other large modern economies should be obvious, it does not diminish the impact of striking drops in the Shanghai Composite Index, which are painting a dismal picture for the future of China.

However, the real question is whether the drops are due to a decline in China’s economic health, or if investors have simply failed to accurately interpret China’s current economic evolution.

A contributing factor to large drops has been the Shanghai stock exchange’s stunning expansion. The index by June 2015 had swelled to 2-1/2 times its previous size of less than two years prior. The daily trading turnover quadrupled in the same time period.

To a certain extent, the government welcomed and even encouraged the rapid expansion. Not only did it result in an influx of fresh capital, but it also helped offset a brief decline in exports.

A more liberalized approach and the introduction of a flood of complex new investment vehicles encouraged ordinary Chinese citizens as well as foreign investors to climb on the bandwagon. Many investors had the mistaken notion that the market would continue expanding indefinitely.

Recently, currency reform has also clouded perceptions on China. China’s devaluation wasn’t substantial, but it was hard for anyone to know how far the devaluation would finally go. In the end, it did not go very far. In 2014-15, the euro’s loss in comparison to the US dollar was far more dramatic than the renminbi.

Looking at several currencies in the past year, many governments have taken initiatives and few have been very open. The bigger takeaway is that all countries including China have interfered in aims to help, not hurt their economies.

China has also given efforts to set a roadmap for long-term growth and keep the economy strong. The question is whether the country should do more or whether it is interfering too much.

As far back as 2013, China set an ambitious reform agenda. During that same year, the country established the One-belt, One-road strategy in an attempt to export productive capacity (not just mere merchandise) to its neighbors.

Another move, that one may not think of in terms of economy, was the abolishment of the long-standing one-child policy.

While neither of these made large instant jolts on the stock market, they are strategic in the long run.

More recently, the approval of the 13th Five-Year Plan in December 2015 outlines the country’s strategy moving forward. Not only does the plan further support what was done in 2013, it was developed in collaboration with top Chinese companies to reach economic growth, with a target of 6.5 percent for the next five years.

For the investment community this is not to be taken lightly, as that target still exceeds the target of all other major economies. No other countries have such a clear strategy at the national level.

When judging the economic health of China, recent market fluctuations also have to been taken into a larger perspective.

The Shanghai stock market is relatively small when compared to China’s economy as a whole. Only 5-10 percent of China’s capital is raised through equity issues, and the total free float of available shares on the market only accounts for 25 percent to 35 percent of GDP.

In most developed countries that ratio is around 85 percent to 100 percent. In the US, it is 150 percent.

So for now stocks in China have a much less drastic effect on the real side of the larger economy. The investor makeup has been too heavily focused on retail.

Although sceptics point to the still heavy reliance on state-owned industries, continuing problems with corruption and a tendency to intervene at critical moments, the fact is that China is making steady progress in its economic reform.

Back in 2001, state-owned enterprises accounted for roughly a third of China’s GDP. Today the figure is 25 percent of GDP. That said, state owned enterprises still account for 60 million jobs. China is evolving relatively quickly, but it needs to do so at a measured pace.

Sector by sector

Business transformation is underway and the landscape is changing in a way that also contributes to China stabilizing as a modern economy. The key for investors is to look at China’s business development on a sector by sector basis. This will be a different and more in-depth approach to finding the right places for growth both on and off the stock market.

Like most countries, China needs to navigate through market disruption brought on by technological innovation. And while, as in any economy, there are and will be failures, there are many successes.

New “Taobao” villages innovatively use e-commerce via the Internet to supply goods to booming rural provinces. In doing so, they have created a dynamic new market filled with opportunity. And that success is not an isolated phenomenon.

China is fast becoming a dominant player in a widening range of new technologies from alternative energy to new battery technologies. Internet giants, Alibaba and Tencent, dwarf their Western competition. China’s Shenzhen-based, consumer drone manufacturer, DJI, currently holds 70 percent of the world market.

China’s smartphone manufacturer, Xiaomi, founded in 2010, sold over 60 million smartphones in 2014. It is providing heavy competition in Asian markets to Apple’s iPhone. That takes on a new significance when one realizes that Apple currently depends on China for a fifth of its sales.

The business sector, like the economy, is evolving, with some sectors faster than others. The bottom line is that while markets will fluctuate, pessimism, is exaggerated when speaking of China’s overall economic health.

It is abnormal for any country to sustain double digit growth for a long period of time. Five to seven percent growth for the second largest economy is still commendable. Both China and the world need to readjust to this new normal.

Winter Nie is a professor at IMD business school in Switzerland.




 

Copyright © 1999- Shanghai Daily. All rights reserved.Preferably viewed with Internet Explorer 8 or newer browsers.

沪公网安备 31010602000204号

Email this to your friend