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Energy reforms call for long-term thinking
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THE diplomats have done their job, concluding the Paris climate agreement in December. And political leaders gathered recently at the United Nations to sign the new accord. But implementation is the tough part. Governments need a new approach to an issue that is highly complex, long term, and global in scale.
At its core, the climate challenge is an energy challenge. About 80 percent of the world’s primary energy comes from carbon-based sources: coal, oil, and gas. When burned, they emit the carbon dioxide that causes global warming. By 2070, we need a world economy that is nearly 100 percent carbon-free to prevent global warming from running dangerously out of control.
The Paris agreement recognizes these basic facts. It calls on the world to cut greenhouse-gas emissions (especially CO2) to net-zero levels in the second half of the century. To this end, governments are to prepare plans not only to the year 2030 (the so-called Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs), but also to mid-century (the so-called Low-Emission Development Strategies, or LEDS).
The fossil-fuel energy system was created step by step over two centuries. Now it must be overhauled in just 50 years, and not in a few countries, but everywhere. There are four reasons why politics as usual will not be sufficient.
First, the energy system is just that: a system of many interconnected parts and technologies. Power plants, pipelines, ocean transport, transmission lines, land use, highways, buildings, vehicles, appliances, and much more must all fit together into a working whole.
Second, there are still many large technological uncertainties in moving to a low-carbon energy system. Should vehicles be decarbonized through battery-electric power, hydrogen fuel cells, or advanced biofuels? Can coal-fired power plants be made safe through carbon capture and storage? Will nuclear energy be safe and low cost? We must plan investments in research and development to resolve these uncertainties and improve our technological options.
Third, sensible solutions require international energy cooperation. One key fact about low-carbon energy (just like fossil fuels) is that it is not generally located where it will ultimately be used. Just as coal, oil, and gas must be transported long distances, so wind, solar, geothermal, and hydropower must be moved long distances through transmission lines and through synthetic liquid fuels made with wind and solar power.
Fourth, there are of course powerful vested interests in the fossil-fuel industry that are resisting change. This is abundantly clear in the US, for example, where the Republican Party denies climate change for the sole reason that it is heavily funded by the US oil industry. This is certainly a species of intellectual corruption, if not political corruption (it’s probably both).
The fact that the energy system involves so many complex interconnections leads to tremendous inertia. Shifting to a low-carbon energy system will therefore require considerable planning, long lead times, dedicated financing, and coordinated action across many parts of the economy. Policy measures such as a tax on carbon emissions can help to address some — but only some — challenges of the energy transition.
Looking 30-50 years ahead
Here is another problem. If governments plan only 10-15 years ahead, as is typical in energy policy, rather than 30-50 years, they will tend to make poor system-related choices. For example, energy planners will move from coal to lower-carbon natural gas; but they will tend to underinvest in the much more decisive shift to renewable energy.
Similarly, they may opt to raise fuel standards for internal-combustion automobiles rather than to push the needed shift to electric vehicles.
In this sense, planning 30-50 years ahead is vital not only to make the correct long-run choices, but also to inform the correct short-term choices.
One key step, I believe, is to remove these issues from short-term electoral politics. Of course, key energy decisions (such as whether to deploy nuclear energy or to build a new transmission grid) will require deep public participation, but planning and implementation should be free of excessive partisan politics and lobbying.
At the next global climate meeting (COP22 in Marrakesh in November), Morocco’s government and my team at the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network will join with other partners to co-host a “Low-Emissions Solutions Conference.”
This conference will bring together energy experts from UN member countries, businesses, and cities to work on highly practical approaches to deep decarbonization. With the Paris climate agreement now in force, we must move urgently to effective implementation.
Jeffrey D. Sachs is Professor of Sustainable Development, Professor of Health Policy and Management, and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is also Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2016. www.project-syndicate.org. Shanghai Daily condensed the article.
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