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America after the election: Deeper division between and within the two major parties
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THE ongoing presidential campaign in the United States stands out for its lack of civility and the vast differences between the candidates. The contest has exposed deep fault lines within American society and damaged the country’s global reputation.
No surprise, then, that one of the few things Americans seem to agree on is that the campaign has gone on for too long. But soon it will be over. The question is: what comes next?
Polls suggest that Hillary Clinton, a former senator and secretary of state, will defeat the controversial Donald Trump. But polls are not to be confused with reality.
Yet some predictions can be made with greater confidence. There is little doubt that the US will emerge from this election a divided country with a divided government, regardless of who is president or which party has a majority in either chamber of Congress. Neither Democrats nor Republicans will be able to realize their objectives without at least some support from the other.
But no one should think that the only divide in American politics is between Republicans and Democrats. In fact, splits within the two major parties are just as deep, with large and highly motivated factions pulling each to their respective extremes — Democrats to the left and Republicans to the right. This makes compromise on centrist positions all the more difficult to achieve.
The rapid resumption of presidential politics will undermine compromise further. If Clinton wins, many Republicans will assume that it was only because of Trump’s flaws, and they will judge her likely to be a one-term president. Similarly, if Trump manages to win, most Democrats (and even some Republicans) will — after recovering from their surprise and dismay — make it their highest priority to ensure that he does not have an opportunity for a second term.
In either scenario, it may still be possible to make progress in a few key areas. The next US government might manage to enact legislation to fund the modernization of America’s aging infrastructure, a policy that both candidates and many in Congress favor.
Some reform
It might also be able to cobble together a majority to reform the US tax code — in particular, lowering the high rate for corporations and raising taxes on the wealthy. There could even be some reform of health care, President Barack Obama’s signature achievement, owing to serious implementation problems with the current system.
But other issues requiring cooperation between Congress and the president are unlikely to be addressed any time soon. One is immigration reform, which is as controversial in the US as it is in Europe. Another is trade. Meanwhile, America’s deficit and debt are certain to rise, as there seems to be little or no will to reduce entitlement spending.
The foreign-policy implications of the election are somewhat different, because, under the US Constitution, the president enjoys considerable latitude.
What exactly will happen to America after the presidential election remains an open question.
Though some outcomes can reasonably be expected, the only genuine certainty is that the 96 percent of the world’s population that does not vote in US elections will feel the effects no less than Americans will.
Richard N. Haass, a former director of policy planning for the US State Department, is President of the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of the forthcoming book A World in Disarray. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2016. www.project-syndicate.org. Shanghai Daily condensed the article.
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