The elegant Vaudeville Theatre in Brussels has a legendary place in the city’s cultural life and collective memory. Opened in 1884, it is now listed as a historic monument. A recent face-lift has returned it to its former glory.

But the world has changed since the days of live theater.

The powerful and prosperous Europe it witnessed 100 years ago is declining. A recent face-to-face debate on China’s foreign policy trajectory at the theater shows how a peacefully rising China has caused suspicion, unease, fear and misunderstanding in the mind of some people in Europe.

The debate was initiated by Belgian scholar Jonathan Holslag, one of Europe’s most well-known China experts and the author of a new book entitled “China’s Coming War with Asia.” He invited Chinese Ambassador to Belgium Qu Xing to join this debate. Qu accepted.

In the exchange Qu explained why Holslag’s points are misguided and misleading.

Professor Jonathan Holslag is co-founder of the Brussels Institute of Contemporary China Studies and a lecturer on international relations at the Free University Brussels. He is the author of several books on China, such as “China and India: Prospects for Peace,” “How Europe Will Survive the Asian Century,” and “Trapped Giant: China’s Military Rise.”

In his new book, Professor Holslag outlines the history of China’s diplomacy since 1949, and analyzes China’s territorial disputes with its neighbors, especially those relating to the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the China-India border.

From his analysis, Holslag concludes that China’s most important interests are incompatible with the idea of peaceful development in a complex Asian environment, and that the tragedy of great power politics is unavoidable. Although the problems will not be caused by China alone, in the end, China will be drawn into war with neighboring countries, as the title of his book suggests.

Another argument Holslag uses to support his conclusion on China’s coming war with Asia is that the Communist Party of China (CPC) has been pursuing four great aspirations: first, to secure control over frontier lands; second, to gain recognition of the legitimacy of the country’s political structure; third, to gain recognition and respect for China’s sovereignty; fourth, to recover China’s lost territory. Professor Holslag argues that despite great changes within China, as well as adjustments to its policies, the above-mentioned aspirations have remained unchanged. Indeed, the leadership’s aspirations to recover lost territory are seen by Holslag as the most likely trigger for armed conflict.

In his book, Holslag wrote that he did not want to spend too much time on the first three aspirations, because they have been largely achieved.

Qu said he agreed with Holslag on this point. First, on securing control over frontier lands, the founding of PRC in 1949 put an end to the control of frontier lands by warlord armies which were supported by foreign forces. Since 1949, China has no longer been subjected to civil war or foreign invasion.

Second, under the leadership of the CPC, overall national strength has increased tremendously, and Chinese people’s living standards have been greatly improved. In particular, since the reform and opening up, China’s GDP increased from US$216 billion in 1978 to US$10 trillion in 2014, making China the second largest economy in the world. China’s per capita GDP increased from US$226 in 1978 to US$7,000 in 2014. Although there is still room for improvement, the party’s ruling status is universally recognized in China.

Third, concerning recognition and respect for China’s sovereignty, we can agree that this is an aspiration shared by all countries and ruling parties.

Professor Holslag focuses his argument on the fourth aspiration, that is, to recover lost territory.

Here he analyzes four issues: the Diaoyu Islands issue with Japan, the South China Sea issue with the Philippines and Vietnam, the border issue with India and the Taiwan issue. According to Holslag, significant increases in China’s economic and military strength are causing concern in neighboring countries. As nationalist sentiments in relevant countries build, politicians will have little room for compromise and will thus have to exert power to balance China. Such developments will lead China to engage in war not only with its neighbors but with countries outside of the region as well.

‘Core interests’

Without a paradigm shift, the tragedy of traditional powers in Asia will be unavoidable.

Sounds reasonable, right?

To such conclusions, Holslag encountered an intractable opponent.

Ambassador Qu is a rising star among China’s new generation of diplomats. Qu obtained a master’s degree and a doctorate in political science at the Paris Institute of Political Studies. Before he began his diplomatic career, Qu had been president of the China Institute of International Studies and vice-President of China Foreign Affairs University.

Qu said China has clearly defined its “core interests,” namely, “state sovereignty, national security, territorial integrity and national reunification, China’s political system established by the Constitution and overall social stability, and the basic safeguards for ensuring sustainable economic and social development.”

Qu went on to explain in his debate with Holslag that “for any country in the world, these six elements would be essential for survival and development. No country in the world would accept infringements from foreign countries on their sovereignty, security, territorial integrity, the constitutional system and social stability. Therefore, there would be no logic to put the core interests and peaceful development against each other.”

Qu also rebutted Holslag’s allegation that China’s territorial disputes would give rise to war.

“Since Professor Holslag studies diplomatic history of China, he should know that in 1949 when the CPC replaced the Kuomintang as the ruling party, China had territorial disputes with all its neighbors on lands. The PRC government has managed to settle disputes peacefully through diplomatic negotiations with 12 neighbors out of 14 in total,” he said, adding that “there is no proof in history to say that China is not able to resolve territorial disputes but will have to resort to war.”

Qu also added that the situation in Asia is more peaceful and stable than many other regions in the world, and economic cooperation between China and other Asian countries are more effective.

“The ‘new type of great power relationship’ which was proposed by President Xi Jinping, charts a course where emerging powers and established powers can achieve a win-win scenario through cooperation. Xi Jinping’s initiatives are endorsed by US President Barack Obama,” he said.

Ever since the founding of the PRC in 1949, scholars from America and Europe have continually made predictions such as those put forward by Holslag; none of which have come true.

He joked that Holslag should consider putting a question mark at the end of his book’s title for its a second edition. “‘China’s Coming War with Asia?’ will still be eye-catching without reducing sales, and more importantly, it will (show) a more objective and value free attitude, which is the most precious quality of a scholar,” Qu said.

The author is a senior editor at Oriental Morning Post.