IMF cuts 2022 global growth forecast to 3.6%
Print Edition
The International Monetary Fund slashed global growth forecast for 2022 to 3.6 percent amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 0.8 percentage points lower than the January projection, according to its World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.
The Ukraine crisis unfolds while the global economy is “on a mending path” but has not yet fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the report said, noting that global economic prospects have worsened “significantly” since the January forecast.
A severe double-digit drop in gross domestic product for Ukraine and a large contraction in Russia are “more than likely,” along with worldwide spillovers through commodity markets, trade and financial channels, it said.
This year’s growth outlook for the European Union has been revised downward by 1.1 percentage points to 2.8 percent due to the indirect effects of the conflict, making it a large contributor to the overall downward revision, per the report.
The United States economy is on track to grow 3.7 percent in 2022, 0.3 percentage points lower than the January projection, before growth moderates to 2.3 percent in 2023. The Chinese economy is expected to grow 4.4 percent this year, 0.4 percentage points lower than the previous projection, followed by a 5.1 percent growth in 2023, the report showed.
China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday the country’s GDP grew 4.8 percent year on year in the first quarter, marking a steady start in 2022 in the face of global challenges and a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.
Analysts said the full-year growth target of 5.5 percent set by China’s policymakers is still attainable but requires greater efforts, given increasing economic headwinds.
Global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023, 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023, respectively, than in the January projection, the report noted.
It laid out five principal forces shaping the near-term global outlook: the Russia-Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening and financial market volatility, fiscal withdrawal, slowing growth in China, and pandemic and vaccine access.
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