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Pollutants study can help issue early smog warnings

Chinese scientists are researching how to forecast the intensity of smog more precisely to issue warnings and help control pollution more effectively.

Wang Zifa, a researcher with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said, “Currently, the abilities to forecast heavy pollution weather and issue early warnings are insufficient. Big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou have such capabilities but precision is needed.”

Technological support is required in tracking down the sources of pollutants and the causes of how pollution is formed, Wang said.

“Research in these respects is urgent both for the short-term response measures and the middle- to long-term solution goals in energy consumption reduction and improvement of energy structure,” he said.

According to Wang, a domestically designed simulation system could display where pollutants come from. For example, it would show whether they are produced by motor vehicles or coal burning, or they are local pollutants or come from the outside.

Under a national plan unveiled in September to treat air pollution, construction of monitoring and warning systems for heavy pollution weather will be completed in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions next year.

Other major cities should complete projects in 2015.

“It is still rather difficult to carry out high-level pollution forecasts, especially if it is for a period of three consecutive days,” according to Wang.

The National Meteorological Center’s smog forecasting system, which began operation in 2012, can forecast three days in advance.

A research program to upgrade the system is underway, according to Zhang Xiaoye, vice president of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science.

The system will be much more precise in forecasting smoggy weather and provide timely data about the places and percentages of emission cuts needed to reduce pollution, Zhang said.

“For example, if we forecast visibility will be about 3 kilometers three days later, can we lift the visibility to 10km through pollutant reduction measures?” Zhang asked.

Dense smog shrouded major cities in northeast China last week, closing schools, highways and airports, with a visibility of less than 10 meters in certain areas.

Beijing, which witnessed frequent prolonged smoggy weather last winter, recently adopted an emergency program to handle air pollution. Cars with odd and even license plates will be allowed on roads on alternate days and schools will close when a red air pollution alert, the highest, is issued.

With a population of more than 20 million and 5.37 million vehicles, Beijing consumes 23 million tons of coal and 7 million tons of fuel a year.

Vehicle exhaust, coal burning and floating dust contribute 22 percent, 16.7 percent and 15.8 percent to PM2.5 respectively in the city, according to the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau.

The emissions of pollutants far exceeded what Beijing’s environment is capable of bearing, said Liu Xianshu, director of the environmental monitoring department of the bureau.

“The demands of every citizen in food, travel and accommodation are direct creators of the sources of pollutants,” said Yu Jianhua, another official of the bureau.

 




 

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