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November 29, 2021

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Report warns on lifting travel curbs

CHINA could face more than 630,000 COVID-19 infections a day if it dropped its zero-tolerance policies by lifting travel curbs, according to a study by Peking University mathematicians.

In a report published in China CDC Weekly by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, the mathematicians said China could not afford to lift travel restrictions without more efficient vaccinations or specific treatments in place.

Using data for August from the United States, Britain, Spain, France and Israel, they assessed the potential results if China adopted the same pandemic control tactics as those countries.

China’s daily new cases would reach at least 637,155 if it adopted the United States’ pandemic strategy, the report said.

And daily cases would hit 275,793 if China took the same approach as Britain and 454,198 if it imitated France, it said.

“The estimates revealed the real possibility of a colossal outbreak which would almost certainly induce an unaffordable burden on the medical system,” the report said.

“Our findings have raised a clear warning that, for the time being, we are not ready to embrace ‘open-up’ strategies resting solely on the hypothesis of herd immunity induced by vaccination advocated by certain western countries.”

The mathematicians cautioned that their estimates were based on basic arithmetic calculations and that more sophisticated models were needed to study the evolution of the pandemic if travel restrictions were lifted.

China has maintained a zero-tolerance policy towards COVID-19, saying the importance of containing local cases when they are found outweighs the disruptions caused by efforts to trace, isolate and treat the infected.

China reported 23 new confirmed coronavirus cases for November 27, down from 25 a day earlier, the country’s health authority said yesterday.

Meanwhile, border city Manzhouli reported 19 positive cases yesterday. The city announced that a massive city-wide nucleic acid test had been organized and an epidemiological investigation was underway.

Among them, two were registered as asymptomatic cases previously. The city also reported an asymptomatic case during the period, officials with the government told a press conference.

A total of 630 people are now under medical observation, according to Song Jixiang, vice mayor of Manzhouli.

The National Health Commission dispatched a working group yesterday to guide COVID-19 response efforts in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region.

Residents were advised not to go outdoors unless if it was necessary. Residential communities and working venues related to the three cases have been locked down to prevent the virus from spreading.

Local authorities said origin tracing and epidemiological investigation is ongoing and the public should not be panic.

Trade markets and entertainment venues have been told to suspend operation. Restaurant dining, weddings, funerals, offline meetings and religious gatherings were also banned. Taxi and public transportation services were all stopped.

Private and community medical centers have suspended operations. Only emergency services with public hospitals are available for needy patients.




 

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