October’s industrial output, trade may rise
Print Edition
CHINA’S economic data for October may point to improving industrial production and trade, analysts said ahead of the data’s release next week.
Wang Tao, an economist of UBS, said industrial production may rise as more automobiles were produced because manufacturers took advantage of the latest purchase tax cut for small-engine cars.
Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications, also expected industrial production to grow at a faster pace in October, but he did not foresee a pickup in investment growth. “It is still too early to say China’s economy has bottomed out,” Lian said.
Wang said the upcoming October data is expected to show real activity remained weak.
Lian said investment will continue to be dragged down by less capital going into property development, which has not seen a rebound due to overcapacity despite a recent rally in housing sales.
Lian said industrial production may expand 5.9 percent from a year earlier in October, up from September’s gain of 5.7 percent. The fixed-asset investment growth may linger at 10.1 percent in the first 10 months, compared with 10.3 percent in the first three quarters.
Earlier data showed the official Purchasing Managers’ Index, a gauge of the operational conditions in the manufacturing sector, remained at 49.8 last month, ending a three-month run of weakening activity.
Retail sales will keep growing around 11 percent and trade may stay sluggish in October, Lian said. Both exports and imports may fall but import contraction will likely narrow to around 14 percent from the slump of 20.4 percent in September.
The Consumer Price Index, the main gauge of inflation, may rise 1.5 percent last month, down from the 1.6 percent increase in September.
China’s gross domestic product grew 6.9 percent from a year earlier in the third quarter — posting the slowest pace since 2009.
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