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OECD expects global economy to improve over next two years
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THE global economy will gradually improve over the next two years but Japan will grow less than previously expected while the eurozone struggles with stagnation and an increased deflation risk, the OECD said yesterday.
There will be marked divergences among countries both in terms of growth and monetary policy, leading to volatility in debt and foreign exchange markets, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.
The United States and Britain will grow more strongly than the eurozone and Japan and, among emerging countries, India, Indonesia and South Africa are set to recover steadily. Russia’s economy is set to stagnate next year and China’s will soften, the think tank said in its biannual economic outlook.
Overall, the global economy is set to expand by 3.3 percent this year, 3.7 percent in 2015 and 3.9 percent in 2016, the OECD said, confirming forecasts published before the G20 summit in Brisbane earlier this month.
While most estimates remained unchanged, Japan’s forecast was more than halved for 2014 and cut to 0.8 percent for next year after it unexpectedly fell into recession in the third quarter. But the OECD still expects Japan to recover as corporate profits remain high and a weak yen will help exports.
A bigger worry for the Paris-based think tank is the euro area, which it said “may have fallen into a persistent stagnation trap.”
“The euro area is at risk of deflation if growth stagnates or if inflation expectations fall further,” it said.
Its inflation forecasts of 0.6 percent for the euro area next year and 1 percent for 2016 are slightly more pessimistic than the European Union’s own forecasts and far from the European Central Bank’s target of just below 2 percent.
The OECD therefore reiterated its call for the ECB to embark on quantitative easing in the eurozone.
“Further monetary stimulus could involve more purchases of asset-backed securities and covered bonds, and also purchases of government bonds, possibly via a weighted basket of euro area countries, and investment-grade corporate bonds,” it said.
The OECD said that below-target budget plans put forward by France and Italy, which are expecting the EU’s verdict on their policies by the end of the week, are “appropriate” to help boost growth.
In the US growth is projected to gain more momentum and remain above trend, the OECD said, reaching 3.1 percent next year.
Britain’s economic growth looks set to slow slightly to 2.7 percent next year, the OECD said — above the long-run average but just below the 2.9 percent forecast by the Bank of England earlier this month. Continued weak productivity remained a major risk.
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