Polls, trade rows dog fresh deal on NAFTA
Print Edition
More than six months after the United States, Mexico and Canada agreed a new deal to govern more than US$1 trillion in regional trade, the chances of the countries ratifying the pact this year are receding.
The three countries struck the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement on September 30, ending a year of difficult negotiations after US President Donald Trump demanded the preceding trade pact be renegotiated or scrapped.
But the deal has not ended trade tensions in North America. If ratification is delayed much longer, it could become hostage to electoral politics.
The United States has its next presidential contest in 2020, and Canada holds a federal election in October.
The delay means businesses are still uncertain about the framework that will govern future investments in the region.
“The USMCA is in trouble,” said Andres Rozental, a former Mexican deputy foreign minister for North America.
Although he believed the deal would ultimately be approved, Rozental said opposition from US Democrats and unions to labor provisions in the deal, as well as bickering over tariffs, made its passage in the next few months highly unlikely.
Canada’s Parliament must also ratify the treaty and officials say the timetable is very tight. Current legislators only have a few weeks work left before the start of the summer recess in June, and members of the new Parliament would have little chance to address ratification until 2020.
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