Shanghai Daily | 上海日报 -- English Window to China News

OIL prices dipped below US$66 a barrel yesterday as investor sentiment once again seemed to shift to the growing global economic malaise and its potential impact on energy demand.

A day after oil staged an Election Day rally, even indications that OPEC was acting on an earlier pledge to pull 1.5 million barrels of crude a day from the market failed to support prices.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell US$5.23 to settle at US$65.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In London, December Brent crude fell US$4.57 to settle at US$61.87 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Prices fell despite a rally in Asian stock markets after the US presidential election was settled, with Barack Obama becoming the first black to win the White House.

Oil prices surged above US$70 a barrel for the first time in nearly two weeks Tuesday, mirroring global stock markets that strengthened in the US, Asia and Europe.

That one-day rally, however, "did not eliminate pervasive fears of a protracted global economic slowdown," Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy, said in a note yesterday morning.

Oil prices have tended to mimic US equities markets of late, and yesterday was no different. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 400 points.

"What happens when you're in a bearish market that's trying to make a bottom is you do a sort of Texas two-step," said Peter Beutel, oil analyst at Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Connecticut. "Oil goes up for a day or two, and the rug gets pulled out. It goes up for another day or so and the rug gets pulled out. The tide appears to be trying to change from an overwhelmingly lower trend to one that's sideways to higher."

On the supply front, US crude inventories remained stable after rising the previous five periods, while gasoline stockpiles rose unexpectedly, according to government data released yesterday.

For the week ended Oct. 31, crude-oil inventories remained at 311.9 million barrels, 1.5 percent above year-ago levels, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report.

Analysts had expected a boost of 500,000 barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

Gasoline inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels, or 0.6 percent, to 196.1 million barrels, which is 1.3 percent below year-ago levels. Analysts expected stockpiles of the motor fuel to fall by 1.1 million barrels.

Demand for gasoline over the four weeks ended October 31 was 2.3 percent lower than a year earlier, the report said.

However, many analysts point to a steady recovery in demand, largely from the dramatic decline in gasoline prices in the past several weeks.

Economic indicators out of the US this week suggest the world's largest economy may be heading for its worst recession in decades. A Commerce Department report Tuesday said factory orders fell 2.5 percent in September from August, much worse than analysts had predicted.

On Monday, US manufacturers reported poor figures for October, showing the worst reading in more than a quarter century, according to the Institute for Supply Management.

The slowdown, sparked by a credit crisis that began last year, shows signs of spreading across the world.

"There are two forces working on the oil price," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "One is fear of weaker consumption, and the other is OPEC cutting output to wind back surpluses in the market."

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said last month it would cut output quotas by 1.5 million barrels a day along with a 520,000 barrel cut announced earlier. Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez has said OPEC, which controls about 40 percent of world crude oil production, may slash production by at least 1 million barrels daily when it meets next in December.

"It's not yet clear that OPEC is disciplined in cutting production," Moore said. "Compliance will be a key issue going forward."

Oil prices have fallen by about 55 percent since peaking at US$147.27 a barrel in mid-July.

Commodities such as oil are used as a hedge against inflation and a weak dollar. Investors flood the crude futures market when the greenback falls. A weak dollar also makes oil less expensive to buyers dealing in other currencies.

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 10.83 cents to settle at US$1.4244 a gallon, heating oil plunged 10.69 cents to settle at US$2.0547 a gallon and natural gas for December delivery rose 4.4 cents to settle at US$7.491 per 1,000 cubic feet.